Realism of confidence judgments

Journal article

Stankov, Lazar, Lee, Jihyun and Paek, Insu. (2009). Realism of confidence judgments. European Journal of Psychological Assessment. 25(2), pp. 123 - 130. https://doi.org/10.1027/1015-5759.25.2.123
AuthorsStankov, Lazar, Lee, Jihyun and Paek, Insu
Abstract

This paper addresses measurement and conceptual issues related to the realism of people’s confidence judgments about their own cognitive abilities. We employed three cognitive tests: listening and reading subtests from the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL iBT) and a synonyms vocabulary test. The sample consisted of community college students. Our results show that the participants tend to be overconfident about their cognitive abilities on most tasks, representing poor realism. Significant group differences were noted with respect to gender and race/ethnicity: female and European American participants showed smaller levels of overconfidence than males and African Americans or Hispanics. We point out that there appear to be significant individual differences in the understanding of subjective probabilities, and these differences can influence the realism of confidence judgments.

Keywordsrealism of confidence; overconfidence; subjective probabilities; Dunning-Kruger effect; calibration curves
Year2009
JournalEuropean Journal of Psychological Assessment
Journal citation25 (2), pp. 123 - 130
PublisherHogrefe and Huber Publishers
ISSN1015-5759
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1027/1015-5759.25.2.123
Page range123 - 130
Research GroupInstitute for Positive Psychology and Education
Place of publicationUnited States of America
Permalink -

https://acuresearchbank.acu.edu.au/item/859zw/realism-of-confidence-judgments

Log in to edit
  • 88
    total views
  • 0
    total downloads
  • 1
    views this month
  • 0
    downloads this month
These values are for the period from 19th October 2020, when this repository was created.

Export as

Related outputs

General fluid/inductive reasoning battery for a high-ability population
Kyllonen, Patrick, Hartman, Robert, Sprenger, Amber, Weeks, Jonathan, Bertling, Maria, McGrew, Kevin, Kriz, Sarah, Bertling, Jonas, Fife, James and Stankov, Lazar. (2019). General fluid/inductive reasoning battery for a high-ability population. Behavior Research Methods. 51(2), pp. 507 - 522. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-018-1098-4
The effects of vignette scoring on reliability and validity of self-reports
Davier, M v., Shin, Hyo-Jeong, Khorramdel, Lale and Stankov, Lazar. (2018). The effects of vignette scoring on reliability and validity of self-reports. Applied Psychological Measurement. 42(4), pp. 291 - 306. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146621617730389
Individual differences in decision making depend on cognitive abilities, monitoring and control
Jackson, Simon A., Kleitman, S., Stankov, Lazar and Howie, Pauline. (2017). Individual differences in decision making depend on cognitive abilities, monitoring and control. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 30(2), pp. 209 - 223. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1939
Individual differences within the psychological atlas of the world
Stankov, Lazar. (2016). Individual differences within the psychological atlas of the world. Personality and Individual Differences. 94, pp. 180 - 188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2016.01.027
Nastiness, morality and religiosity in 33 nations
Stankov, Lazar and Lee, Jihyun. (2016). Nastiness, morality and religiosity in 33 nations. Personality and Individual Differences. 99, pp. 56 - 66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2016.04.069
Major psychological dimensions of cross-cultural differences: Nastiness, social awareness/morality, religiosity and broad conservatism/liberalism
Stankov, Lazar. (2016). Major psychological dimensions of cross-cultural differences: Nastiness, social awareness/morality, religiosity and broad conservatism/liberalism. Learning and Individual Differences. 49, pp. 138 - 150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2016.06.003
Decision pattern analysis as a general framework for studying individual differences in decision making
Jackson, Simon A., Kleitman, Sabina, Stankov, Lazar and Howie, Pauline. (2016). Decision pattern analysis as a general framework for studying individual differences in decision making. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 29(4), pp. 392 - 408. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1887
Toward a psychological atlas of the world with mixture modeling
Stankov, Lazar and Lee, Jihyun. (2016). Toward a psychological atlas of the world with mixture modeling. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology. 47(2), pp. 249 - 262. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022022115611749
Hans J. Eysenck and Raymond B. Cattell on intelligence and personality
Boyle, Gregory J., Stankov, Lazar, Martin, Nicholas G., Petrides, K. V., Eysenck, Michael W. and Ortet, Generos. (2016). Hans J. Eysenck and Raymond B. Cattell on intelligence and personality. Personality and Individual Differences. 103, pp. 40 - 47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2016.04.029
Four GLOBE dimensions of perceived social norms in 33 countries
Stankov, Lazar. (2015). Four GLOBE dimensions of perceived social norms in 33 countries. Learning and Individual Differences: journal of psychology and education. 41, pp. 30 - 42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2015.07.005
Measures of the trait of confidence
Stankov, Lazar, Kleitman, Sabina and Jackson, Simon A.. (2015). Measures of the trait of confidence. In In D. H. Saklofske and G. Matthews (Ed.). Measures of personality and social psychological constructs Elsevier.
Social axioms in 33 countries : Good replicability at the individual but less so at the country level
Stankov, Lazar and Saucier, Gerard. (2015). Social axioms in 33 countries : Good replicability at the individual but less so at the country level. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology. 46(2), pp. 296 - 315. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022022114558333
Individual differences in cognitive biases: Evidence against one-factor theory of rationality
Teovanovic, Predrag, Knezevic, Goran and Stankov, Lazar. (2015). Individual differences in cognitive biases: Evidence against one-factor theory of rationality. Intelligence. 50, pp. 75 - 86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2015.02.008
Overconfidence across world regions
Stankov, Lazar and Lee, Jihyun. (2014). Overconfidence across world regions. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology. 45(5), pp. 821 - 837. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022022114527345
Confidence: The best non-cognitive predictor of academic achievement?
Stankov, Lazar, Morony, Suzanne and Lee, Yim. (2014). Confidence: The best non-cognitive predictor of academic achievement? Educational Psychology. 34(1), pp. 9 - 28. https://doi.org/10.1080/01443410.2013.814194
Two dimensions of psychological country-level differences: Conservatism/Liberalism and Harshness/Softness
Stankov, Lazar, Lee, Jihyun and van de Vijver, Fons J. R.. (2014). Two dimensions of psychological country-level differences: Conservatism/Liberalism and Harshness/Softness. Learning and Individual Differences: journal of psychology and education. 30, pp. 22 - 33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2013.12.001
Quest for the best non-cognitive predictor of academic achievement
Stankov, Lazar and Lee, Jihyun. (2014). Quest for the best non-cognitive predictor of academic achievement. Educational Psychology : An international journal of experimental educational psychology. 34(1), pp. 1 - 8. https://doi.org/10.1080/01443410.2013.858908
Whither metacognition
Stankov, Lazar and Kleitman, S.. (2014). Whither metacognition. Learning and Individual Differences. 29, pp. 120 - 122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2013.06.001
Depression and life satisfaction among European and Confucian adolescents
Stankov, Lazar. (2013). Depression and life satisfaction among European and Confucian adolescents. Psychological Assessment. 25(4), pp. 1220 - 1234. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0033794
Predicting achievement: Confidence vs self-efficacy, anxiety, and self-concept in Confucian and European countries
Morony, Suzanne, Kleitman, Sabina, Lee, Yim Ping and Stankov, Lazar. (2013). Predicting achievement: Confidence vs self-efficacy, anxiety, and self-concept in Confucian and European countries. International Journal of Educational Research. 58, pp. 79 - 96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijer.2012.11.002
Higher-order structure of noncognitive constructs and prediction of PISA 2003 mathematics achievement
Lee, Jihyun and Stankov, Lazar. (2013). Higher-order structure of noncognitive constructs and prediction of PISA 2003 mathematics achievement. Learning and Individual Differences. 26, pp. 119 - 130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2013.05.004
Noncognitive predictors of intelligence and academic achievement : An important role of confidence
Stankov, Lazar. (2013). Noncognitive predictors of intelligence and academic achievement : An important role of confidence. Personality and Individual Differences. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2013.07.006
Structural extensions of a hierarchical view on human cognitive abilities
Stankov, Lazar. (2012). Structural extensions of a hierarchical view on human cognitive abilities. In In G. J. Boyle, D. H. Saklofske and Gerald Matthews (Ed.). Psychological Assessment pp. 29 - 47 Sage Publications Ltd..
Large-scale online writing assessments: New approaches adopted in the national assessment of educational progress
Lee, Jihyun and Stankov, Lazar. (2012). Large-scale online writing assessments: New approaches adopted in the national assessment of educational progress. In In E. L. Grigorenko, Elisa Mambrino and David D. Preiss (Ed.). Writing a Mosaic of New Perspectives pp. 371 - 384 Psychology Press.
Confidence: a better predictor of academic achievement than self-efficacy, self-concept and anxiety?
Stankov, Lazar, Lee, Jihyun, Luo, W and Hogan, D. (2012). Confidence: a better predictor of academic achievement than self-efficacy, self-concept and anxiety? Learning and Individual Differences: journal of psychology and education. 22(6), pp. 747 - 758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2012.05.013
Contemporary militant extremism: A linguistic approach to scale development
Stankov, Lazar, Higgins, D., Saucier, Gerard and Knezevic, Goran. (2012). Contemporary militant extremism: A linguistic approach to scale development. In In G. J. Boyle, Donald H. Saklofske and G. Matthews (Ed.). Psychological Assessment pp. 41 - 67 SAGE Publications Inc..
Perceptual underconfidence: A conceptual illusion?
Stankov, Lazar, Pallier, G, Danthiir, V and Morony, S. (2012). Perceptual underconfidence: A conceptual illusion? European Journal of Psychological Assessment. 28(3), pp. 190 - 200.
individual, country and societal cluster differences on measures of personality, attitudes, values, and social norms
Stankov, Lazar. (2011). individual, country and societal cluster differences on measures of personality, attitudes, values, and social norms. Learning and Individual Differences: journal of psychology and education. 21(1), pp. 55 - 66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2010.09.002
Unforgiving Confucian culture: A breeding ground for high academic achievement, test anxiety and self-doubt?
Stankov, Lazar. (2010). Unforgiving Confucian culture: A breeding ground for high academic achievement, test anxiety and self-doubt? Learning and Individual Differences. 20(6), pp. 555 - 563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2010.05.003
Contemporary militant extremism: A linguistic approach to scale development
Stankov, Lazar, Higgins, Derrick, Saucier, Gerard and Knežević, Goran. (2010). Contemporary militant extremism: A linguistic approach to scale development. Psychological Assessment. 22(2), pp. 246 - 258. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0017372
Contemporary militant extremism: A linguistic approach to scale development
Stankov, Lazar, Higgins, D., Saucier, G. and Kneszevic, G. (2010). Contemporary militant extremism: A linguistic approach to scale development. Psychological Assessment. 22(2), pp. 246 - 258. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0017372
Militant extremist mind-set: Proviolence, vile world, and divine power
Stankov, Lazar, Saucier, Gerard and Knežević, Goran. (2010). Militant extremist mind-set: Proviolence, vile world, and divine power. Psychological Assessment. 22(1), pp. 70 - 86. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0016925
Large-scale cross-cultural studies of cognitive and noncognitive constructs
Stankov, Lazar. (2009). Large-scale cross-cultural studies of cognitive and noncognitive constructs. Learning and Individual Differences: journal of psychology and education. 19(3), pp. 327 - 329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2009.02.003
Dimensions of cultural differences: Pancultural, ETiC/EMiC, and ecological approaches
Stankov, Lazar and Lee, Joohyung. (2009). Dimensions of cultural differences: Pancultural, ETiC/EMiC, and ecological approaches. Learning and Individual Differences: journal of psychology and education. 19(3), pp. 339 - 354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lindif.2008.09.003
Patterns of thinking in militant extremism
Saucier, Gerard, Akers, Laura Geuy, Shen-Miller, Seraphine, Knezevic, Goran and Stankov, Lazar. (2009). Patterns of thinking in militant extremism. Perspectives on Psychological Science. 4, pp. 256 - 271. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6924.2009.01123.x
Do measures of working memory predict academic proficiency better than measures of intelligence?
Lee, Kerry, Pe, Madeline Lee, Ang, Su Yin and Stankov, Lazar. (2009). Do measures of working memory predict academic proficiency better than measures of intelligence? Psychological Test and Assessment Modeling. 51(4), pp. 403 - 419.
Conservatism and cognitive ability
Stankov, Lazar. (2009). Conservatism and cognitive ability. Intelligence. 37(3), pp. 294 - 304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2008.12.007
Confidence and cognitive test performance
Stankov, Lazar and Lee, Jihyun. (2008). Confidence and cognitive test performance. Journal of Educational Psychology. 100(4), pp. 961 - 976. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0012546
Extending intelligence: Conclusions and future directions
Roberts, Richard D., Stankov, Lazar, Schulze, Ralf and Kyllonen, Patrick C.. (2008). Extending intelligence: Conclusions and future directions. In In P.C. Kyllonen, R.D. Roberts and L. Stankov (Ed.). Extending intelligence: Enhancement and new constructs pp. 433 - 452 Lawrence Erlbaum Associates inc..
Enhancement and new constructs: Overview and rationale
Kyllonen, Patrick C., Stankov, Lazar and Roberts, Richard D.. (2008). Enhancement and new constructs: Overview and rationale. In In P.C. Kyllonen, R.D. Roberts and L. Stankov (Ed.). Extending intelligence: Enhancement and new constructs pp. 3 - 11 Lawrence Erlbaum Associates inc..
Processes on the borderline between cognitive abilities and personality: Confidence and its realism
Stankov, Lazar and Kleitman, Sabina. (2008). Processes on the borderline between cognitive abilities and personality: Confidence and its realism. In In G.J. Boyle, G. Matthews and D.H. Saklofske (Ed.). The Sage handbook of personality theory and assessment pp. 545 - 559 Sage Publications Ltd..
Culture: Ways of thinking and believing
Stankov, Lazar and Lee, Jihyun. (2008). Culture: Ways of thinking and believing. In In G.J. Boyle, G. Matthews and D.H. Saklofske (Ed.). The Sage handbook of personality theory and assessment pp. 560 - 575 Sage Publications Ltd..