General dynamic trivality theorems

Journal article

Russell, Jeffrey Sanford and Hawthorne, John. (2016). General dynamic trivality theorems. The Philosophical Review. 125(3), pp. 307 - 339. https://doi.org/10.1215/00318108-3516936
AuthorsRussell, Jeffrey Sanford and Hawthorne, John
Abstract

Famous results by David Lewis show that plausible-sounding constraints on the probabilities of conditionals or evaluative claims lead to unacceptable results, by standard probabilistic reasoning. Existing presentations of these results rely on stronger assumptions than they really need. When we strip these arguments down to a minimal core, we can see both how certain replies miss the mark, and also how to devise parallel arguments for other domains, including epistemic “might,” probability claims, claims about comparative value, and so on. A popular reply to Lewis's results is to claim that conditional claims, or claims about subjective value, lack truth conditions. For this strategy to have a chance of success, it needs to give up basic structural principles about how epistemic states can be updated—in a way that is strikingly parallel to the commitments of the project of dynamic semantics.

Keywordsprobability; conditionals; epistemic modals; subjective value; dynamic semantics; commutativity; idempotence
Year2016
JournalThe Philosophical Review
Journal citation125 (3), pp. 307 - 339
PublisherDuke University Press
ISSN0031-8108
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1215/00318108-3516936
Page range307 - 339
Research GroupDianoia Institute of Philosophy
Publisher's version
File Access Level
Controlled
Place of publicationUnited States of America
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