In-depth analysis of drivers' merging behavior and rear-end crash risks in work zone merging areas

Journal article


Weng, Jinxian, Xue, Shan, Yang, Ying, Yan, Xuedong and Qu, Xiaobo. (2015). In-depth analysis of drivers' merging behavior and rear-end crash risks in work zone merging areas. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 77, pp. 51 - 61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2015.02.002
AuthorsWeng, Jinxian, Xue, Shan, Yang, Ying, Yan, Xuedong and Qu, Xiaobo
Abstract

This study investigates the drivers’ merging behavior and the rear-end crash risk in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the merging traffic data from a work zone site in Singapore, a mixed probit model is developed to describe the merging behavior, and two surrogate safety measures including the time to collision ( TTC ) and deceleration rate to avoid the crash ( DRAC ) are adopted to compute the rear-end crash risk between the merging vehicle and its neighboring vehicles. Results show that the merging vehicle has a bigger probability of completing a merging maneuver quickly under one of the following situations: ( i ) the merging vehicle moves relatively fast; ( ii ) the merging lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle; and ( iii ) there is a sizable gap in the adjacent through lane. Results indicate that the rear-end crash risk does not monotonically increase as the merging vehicle speed increases. The merging vehicle's rear-end crash risk is also affected by the vehicle type. There is a biggest increment of rear-end crash risk if the merging lead vehicle belongs to a heavy vehicle. Although the reduced remaining distance to work zone could urge the merging vehicle to complete a merging maneuver quickly, it might lead to an increased rear-end crash risk. Interestingly, it is found that the rear-end crash risk could be generally increased over the elapsed time after the merging maneuver being triggered.

Keywordsmerging behavior; rear-end crash risk; work zone; mixed probit model; surrogate safety measure
Year2015
JournalAccident Analysis and Prevention
Journal citation77, pp. 51 - 61
PublisherElsevier Ltd
ISSN0001-4575
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2015.02.002
Scopus EID2-s2.0-84922772499
Page range51 - 61
Publisher's version
File Access Level
Controlled
Place of publicationUnited Kingdom
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