Cumulative prospect theory coupled with multi-attribute decision making for modeling travel behavior

Journal article


Gao, Kun, Sun, Lijun, Yang, Ying, Meng, Fanyu and Qu, Xiaobo. (2021). Cumulative prospect theory coupled with multi-attribute decision making for modeling travel behavior. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 148, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.03.025
AuthorsGao, Kun, Sun, Lijun, Yang, Ying, Meng, Fanyu and Qu, Xiaobo
Abstract

This study proposes an approach for modeling travel behavior under uncertainty coupling Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) with Multi-attribute Decision Making (MADM) theory. CPT is utilized to depict travelers’ evaluations of each attribute, and MADM describes the process of making tradeoffs among multiple conflicting criteria. Divergent perception principles for different attributes are considered in the proposed framework. The proposed approach is utilized for an empirical analysis concerning mode shift behavior for commuting in Shanghai of China, based on data collected by stated preference surveys. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms conventional methods in terms of model performances and behavioral revelations. Empirical results demonstrate that sensitivity to gains and losses in cost and travel time are divergent in mode shift behavior. More importantly, it is found that travelers underestimate the occurrence chances of low-probability travel time and overestimate the occurrence changes of high-probability travel time in mode shift behavior, which is contrary to the findings from economics. Travelers show substantial loss aversion features as well. The heterogeneity in the value functions of CPT is investigated to shed light on differences in the evaluation process among individuals. Results reveal quite different empirical CPT parameters and behavioral mechanisms in mode shift behavior as compared to monetary experiments in economics. It highlights the importance of empirical estimations in various travel choice contexts to essentially understand travel behavior mechanisms, rather than arbitrary usage of findings from economics.

Keywordssustainable transportation; cumulative prospect theory; nonlinear sensitivity; smart mobility; probability weighting
Year2021
JournalTransportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Journal citation148, pp. 1-21
PublisherElsevier Ltd
ISSN0965-8564
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.03.025
Scopus EID2-s2.0-85103651858
Research or scholarlyResearch
Page range1-21
Publisher's version
License
All rights reserved
File Access Level
Controlled
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online01 Apr 2021
Publication process dates
Accepted22 Mar 2021
Deposited09 Aug 2021
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