Support vector regression with asymmetric loss for optimal electric load forecasting

Journal article


Wu, Ryan, Wang, You-Gan, Tian, Yu-Chu, Burrage, Kevin and Cao, Taoyun. (2021). Support vector regression with asymmetric loss for optimal electric load forecasting. Energy. 223, p. Article 119969. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.119969
AuthorsWu, Ryan, Wang, You-Gan, Tian, Yu-Chu, Burrage, Kevin and Cao, Taoyun
Abstract

In energy demand forecasting, the objective function is often symmetric, implying that over-prediction errors and under-prediction errors have the same consequences. In practice, these two types of errors generally incur very different costs. To accommodate this, we propose a machine learning algorithm with a cost-oriented asymmetric loss function in the training procedure. Specifically, we develop a new support vector regression incorporating a linear-linear cost function and the insensitivity parameter for sufficient fitting. The electric load data from the state of New South Wales in Australia is used to show the superiority of our proposed framework. Compared with the basic support vector regression, our new asymmetric support vector regression framework for multi-step load forecasting results in a daily economic cost reduction ranging from 42.19% to 57.39%, depending on the actual cost ratio of the two types of errors.

Keywordsasymmetric loss; cost-orientation; machine learning; statistical modeling; load forecasting
Year2021
JournalEnergy
Journal citation223, p. Article 119969
PublisherElsevier Ltd
ISSN0360-5442
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.119969
Scopus EID2-s2.0-85101019931
Open accessPublished as green open access
Page range1-12
FunderAustralian Research Council (ARC)
Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation
Guangdong universities
Author's accepted manuscript
License
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Open
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All rights reserved
File Access Level
Controlled
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online10 Feb 2021
Publication process dates
Accepted22 Jan 2021
Deposited07 Dec 2022
ARC Funded ResearchThis output has been funded, wholly or partially, under the Australian Research Council Act 2001
Grant IDDP160104292
CE140100049
2020A1515011580
2018GKTSCX010
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Wu, Jinran, Cui, Zhesen, Chen, Yanyan, Kong, Demeng and Wang, You-Gan. (2019). A new hybrid model to predict the electrical load in five states of Australia. Energy. 166, pp. 598-609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.076
Sweepstakes reproductive success is absent in a New Zealand snapper (Chrysophrus auratus) population protected from fishing despite “tiny” Ne/N ratios elsewhere
Jones, Andy, Lavery, Shane D., Le Port, Agnès, Wang, You-Gan, Blower, Dean and Ovenden, Jennifer. (2019). Sweepstakes reproductive success is absent in a New Zealand snapper (Chrysophrus auratus) population protected from fishing despite “tiny” Ne/N ratios elsewhere. Molecular Ecology. 28(12), pp. 2986-2995. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.15130
A review of the Behrens–Fisher problem and some of its analogs : Does the same size fit all?
Paul, Sudhir, Wang, You-Gan and Ullah, Insha. (2019). A review of the Behrens–Fisher problem and some of its analogs : Does the same size fit all? Revstat Statistical Journal. 17(4), p. 563–597.
Incorporating social objectives in evaluating sustainable fisheries harvest strategy
Wu, Jiafeng, Wang, Na, Hu, Zhi-Hua, Hong, Zhenjie and Wang, You-Gan. (2019). Incorporating social objectives in evaluating sustainable fisheries harvest strategy. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 24(4), pp. 381-386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-019-9651-9
Significance tests for analyzing gene expression data with small sample sizes
Ullah, Insha, Paul, Sudhir, Hong, Zhenjie and Wang, You-Gan. (2019). Significance tests for analyzing gene expression data with small sample sizes. Bioinformatics. 35(20), pp. 3996-4003. https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btz189
Robust Estimation Using Modified Huber’s Functions With New Tails
Jiang, Yunlu, Wang, You-Gan, Fu, Liya and Wang, Xueqin. (2019). Robust Estimation Using Modified Huber’s Functions With New Tails. Technometrics. 61(1), pp. 111-122. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2018.1470037
Variable selection in rank regression for analyzing longitudinal data
Fu, Liya and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Variable selection in rank regression for analyzing longitudinal data. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. 27(8), pp. 2447-2458. https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280216681347
Assessing temporal variations of Ammonia Nitrogen concentrations and loads in the Huaihe River Basin in relation to policies on pollution source control
Xu, Jing, Jin, Guangqiu, Tang, Hongwu, Zhang, Pei, Wang, Shen, Wang, You-Gan and Li, Ling. (2018). Assessing temporal variations of Ammonia Nitrogen concentrations and loads in the Huaihe River Basin in relation to policies on pollution source control. Science of the Total Environment. 642, pp. 1386-1395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.395
Genomic prediction of breeding values using a subset of SNPs identified by three machine learning methods
Li, Bo, Zhang, Nanxi, Wang, You-Gan, George, Andrew W., Reverter, Antonio and Li, Yutao. (2018). Genomic prediction of breeding values using a subset of SNPs identified by three machine learning methods. Frontiers in Genetics. 9, p. Article 237. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2018.00237
Dividend growth and equity premium predictability
Zhu, Min, Chen, Rui, Du, Ke and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Dividend growth and equity premium predictability. International Review of Economics and Finance. 56, pp. 125-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.020
Robust Regression with Data-Dependent Regularization Parameters and Autoregressive Temporal Correlations
Wang, Na, Wang, You-Gan, Hu, Shuwen, Hu, Zhi-Hua, Xu, Jing, Tang, Hongwu and Jin, Guangqiu. (2018). Robust Regression with Data-Dependent Regularization Parameters and Autoregressive Temporal Correlations. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 23(6), pp. 779-786. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-018-9605-7
Analysis of spatial data with a nested correlation structure
Adegboye, Oyelola, Leung, Denis and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Analysis of spatial data with a nested correlation structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics. 67(2), pp. 329-354. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12230
Working correlation structure selection in generalized estimating equations
Fu, Liya, Hao, Yangyang and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Working correlation structure selection in generalized estimating equations. Computational Statistics. 33(2), pp. 983-996. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-018-0800-4
Selection of working correlation structure in generalized estimating equations
Wang, You-Gan and Fu, Liya. (2017). Selection of working correlation structure in generalized estimating equations. Statistics in Medicine. 36(14), pp. 2206-2219. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7262
Blockwise AICc for model selection in generalized linear models
Song, Guofeng, Dong, Xiaogang, Wu, Jiafeng and Wang, You-Gan. (2017). Blockwise AICc for model selection in generalized linear models. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 22(6), pp. 523-533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-017-9552-8
A comment on Koh’s “The optimal design of fallible organizations : Invariance of optimal decision threshold and uniqueness of hierarchy and polyarchy structures”
Zhu, Min, Liu, Chang and Wang, You-Gan. (2017). A comment on Koh’s “The optimal design of fallible organizations : Invariance of optimal decision threshold and uniqueness of hierarchy and polyarchy structures”. Social Choice and Welfare. 48(2), pp. 385-392. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00355-016-1009-5
The Buckley–James estimator and induced smoothing
Wang, You-Gan, Zhao, Yudong and Fu, Liya. (2016). The Buckley–James estimator and induced smoothing. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics. 58(2), pp. 211-225. https://doi.org/10.1111/anzs.12155
Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data
Kienzle, Marco, Sterling, David, Zhou, Shijie and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data. Ecological Modelling. 322, pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.11.008
Otolith morphology of four mackerel species (Scomberomorus spp.) in Australia : Species differentiation and prediction for fisheries monitoring and assessment
Zischke, Mitchell T., Litherland, Lenore, Tilyard, Benjamin R., Stratford, Nicholas J., Jones, Ebony L. and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Otolith morphology of four mackerel species (Scomberomorus spp.) in Australia : Species differentiation and prediction for fisheries monitoring and assessment. Fisheries Research. 176, pp. 39-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2015.12.003
Efficient parameter estimation via Gaussian copulas for quantile regression with longitudinal data
Fu, Liya and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Efficient parameter estimation via Gaussian copulas for quantile regression with longitudinal data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis. 143, pp. 492-502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2015.07.004
Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data
Lloyd-Jones, Luke R., Nguyen, Hien D., McLachlan, Geoffrey J., Sumpton, Wayne and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data. Biometrics. 72(4), pp. 1255-1265. https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.12531
Movement and growth of the coral reef holothuroids Bohadschia argus and Thelenota ananas
Purcell, Steven W., Piddocke, Toby P., Dalton, Steven J. and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Movement and growth of the coral reef holothuroids Bohadschia argus and Thelenota ananas. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 551, pp. 201-214. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11720
Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size
Jones, A. T., Ovenden, J. R. and Wang, Y.-G.. (2016). Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size. Heredity. 117(4), pp. 217-223. https://doi.org/10.1038/hdy.2016.19