Influential factors on Chinese airlines’ profitability and forecasting methods
Journal article
Xu, Xu, McGrory, Clare Anne, Wang, You-Gan and Wu, Jinran. (2021). Influential factors on Chinese airlines’ profitability and forecasting methods. Journal of Air Transport Management. 91, p. Article 101969. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101969
Authors | Xu, Xu, McGrory, Clare Anne, Wang, You-Gan and Wu, Jinran |
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Abstract | We establish profit models to predict the performance of airlines in the short term using the quarterly profit data collected on the three largest airlines in China together with additional recent historical data on external influencing factors. In particular, we propose the application of the LASSO estimation method to this problem and we compare its performance with a suite of other more modern state-of-the-art approaches including ridge regression, support vector regression, tree regression and neural networks. It is shown that LASSO generally outperforms the other approaches in this study. We concluded a number of findings on the oil price and other influential factors on Chinese airline profitability. |
Keywords | airline; fuel costs; profitability; LASSO; forecasting |
Year | 2021 |
Journal | Journal of Air Transport Management |
Journal citation | 91, p. Article 101969 |
Publisher | Elsevier Ltd |
ISSN | 0969-6997 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101969 |
Scopus EID | 2-s2.0-85096594238 |
Page range | 1-8 |
Funder | Zhejiang Province Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project |
Zhejiang Province Soft Science Research Project | |
Wenzhou Soft Science Research Project | |
Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China | |
Australian Research Council (ARC) | |
Publisher's version | License All rights reserved File Access Level Controlled |
Output status | Published |
Publication dates | |
Online | 17 Nov 2020 |
Publication process dates | |
Accepted | 16 Oct 2020 |
Deposited | 08 Dec 2022 |
ARC Funded Research | This output has been funded, wholly or partially, under the Australian Research Council Act 2001 |
Grant ID | 21NDJC186YB |
2020C35014 | |
R2020002 | |
Y19A010054 | |
DP160104292 | |
CE140100049 |
https://acuresearchbank.acu.edu.au/item/8y8q7/influential-factors-on-chinese-airlines-profitability-and-forecasting-methods
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