Spatio-temporal quantile regression analysis revealing more nuanced patterns of climate change : A study of long-term daily temperature in Australia

Journal article

Duan, Qibin, McGrory, Clare A., Brown, Glenn, Mengersen, Kerrie and Wang, You-Gan. (2022). Spatio-temporal quantile regression analysis revealing more nuanced patterns of climate change : A study of long-term daily temperature in Australia. PLoS ONE. 17, p. Article e0271457. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271457
AuthorsDuan, Qibin, McGrory, Clare A., Brown, Glenn, Mengersen, Kerrie and Wang, You-Gan
Abstract

Many studies have considered temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period and hence lacking in in-depth analysis of the latent trends. For example, in addition to heterogeneity in mean and median values, daily temperature data often exhibit quasi-periodic heterogeneity in variance, which has largely been overlooked in climate research. To this end, we propose a joint model of quantile regression and variability. By accounting appropriately for the heterogeneity in these types of data, our analysis using Australian data reveals that daily maximum temperature is warming by ∼0.21°C per decade and daily minimum temperature by ∼0.13°C per decade. More interestingly, our modeling also shows nuanced patterns of change over space and time depending on location, season, and the percentiles of the temperature series.

Year2022
JournalPLoS ONE
Journal citation17, p. Article e0271457
PublisherPublic Library of Science
ISSN1932-6203
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271457
PubMed ID36001585
Scopus EID2-s2.0-85136941158
PubMed Central IDPMC9401128
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
Page range1-16
FunderAustralian Research Council (ARC)
Publisher's version
License
File Access Level
Open
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online24 Aug 2022
Publication process dates
Accepted30 Jun 2022
Deposited04 Jul 2023
ARC Funded ResearchThis output has been funded, wholly or partially, under the Australian Research Council Act 2001
Grant IDCE140100049
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Jones, Andy, Lavery, Shane D., Le Port, Agnès, Wang, You-Gan, Blower, Dean and Ovenden, Jennifer. (2019). Sweepstakes reproductive success is absent in a New Zealand snapper (Chrysophrus auratus) population protected from fishing despite “tiny” Ne/N ratios elsewhere. Molecular Ecology. 28(12), pp. 2986-2995. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.15130
A review of the Behrens–Fisher problem and some of its analogs : Does the same size fit all?
Paul, Sudhir, Wang, You-Gan and Ullah, Insha. (2019). A review of the Behrens–Fisher problem and some of its analogs : Does the same size fit all? Revstat Statistical Journal. 17(4), p. 563–597.
Incorporating social objectives in evaluating sustainable fisheries harvest strategy
Wu, Jiafeng, Wang, Na, Hu, Zhi-Hua, Hong, Zhenjie and Wang, You-Gan. (2019). Incorporating social objectives in evaluating sustainable fisheries harvest strategy. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 24(4), pp. 381-386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-019-9651-9
Significance tests for analyzing gene expression data with small sample sizes
Ullah, Insha, Paul, Sudhir, Hong, Zhenjie and Wang, You-Gan. (2019). Significance tests for analyzing gene expression data with small sample sizes. Bioinformatics. 35(20), pp. 3996-4003. https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btz189
Robust Estimation Using Modified Huber’s Functions With New Tails
Jiang, Yunlu, Wang, You-Gan, Fu, Liya and Wang, Xueqin. (2019). Robust Estimation Using Modified Huber’s Functions With New Tails. Technometrics. 61(1), pp. 111-122. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2018.1470037
Variable selection in rank regression for analyzing longitudinal data
Fu, Liya and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Variable selection in rank regression for analyzing longitudinal data. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. 27(8), pp. 2447-2458. https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280216681347
Assessing temporal variations of Ammonia Nitrogen concentrations and loads in the Huaihe River Basin in relation to policies on pollution source control
Xu, Jing, Jin, Guangqiu, Tang, Hongwu, Zhang, Pei, Wang, Shen, Wang, You-Gan and Li, Ling. (2018). Assessing temporal variations of Ammonia Nitrogen concentrations and loads in the Huaihe River Basin in relation to policies on pollution source control. Science of the Total Environment. 642, pp. 1386-1395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.395
Genomic prediction of breeding values using a subset of SNPs identified by three machine learning methods
Li, Bo, Zhang, Nanxi, Wang, You-Gan, George, Andrew W., Reverter, Antonio and Li, Yutao. (2018). Genomic prediction of breeding values using a subset of SNPs identified by three machine learning methods. Frontiers in Genetics. 9, p. Article 237. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2018.00237
Dividend growth and equity premium predictability
Zhu, Min, Chen, Rui, Du, Ke and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Dividend growth and equity premium predictability. International Review of Economics and Finance. 56, pp. 125-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.020
Robust Regression with Data-Dependent Regularization Parameters and Autoregressive Temporal Correlations
Wang, Na, Wang, You-Gan, Hu, Shuwen, Hu, Zhi-Hua, Xu, Jing, Tang, Hongwu and Jin, Guangqiu. (2018). Robust Regression with Data-Dependent Regularization Parameters and Autoregressive Temporal Correlations. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 23(6), pp. 779-786. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-018-9605-7
Analysis of spatial data with a nested correlation structure
Adegboye, Oyelola, Leung, Denis and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Analysis of spatial data with a nested correlation structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics. 67(2), pp. 329-354. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12230
Working correlation structure selection in generalized estimating equations
Fu, Liya, Hao, Yangyang and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Working correlation structure selection in generalized estimating equations. Computational Statistics. 33(2), pp. 983-996. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-018-0800-4
Selection of working correlation structure in generalized estimating equations
Wang, You-Gan and Fu, Liya. (2017). Selection of working correlation structure in generalized estimating equations. Statistics in Medicine. 36(14), pp. 2206-2219. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7262
Blockwise AICc for model selection in generalized linear models
Song, Guofeng, Dong, Xiaogang, Wu, Jiafeng and Wang, You-Gan. (2017). Blockwise AICc for model selection in generalized linear models. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 22(6), pp. 523-533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-017-9552-8
A comment on Koh’s “The optimal design of fallible organizations : Invariance of optimal decision threshold and uniqueness of hierarchy and polyarchy structures”
Zhu, Min, Liu, Chang and Wang, You-Gan. (2017). A comment on Koh’s “The optimal design of fallible organizations : Invariance of optimal decision threshold and uniqueness of hierarchy and polyarchy structures”. Social Choice and Welfare. 48(2), pp. 385-392. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00355-016-1009-5
The Buckley–James estimator and induced smoothing
Wang, You-Gan, Zhao, Yudong and Fu, Liya. (2016). The Buckley–James estimator and induced smoothing. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics. 58(2), pp. 211-225. https://doi.org/10.1111/anzs.12155
Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data
Kienzle, Marco, Sterling, David, Zhou, Shijie and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data. Ecological Modelling. 322, pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.11.008
Otolith morphology of four mackerel species (Scomberomorus spp.) in Australia : Species differentiation and prediction for fisheries monitoring and assessment
Zischke, Mitchell T., Litherland, Lenore, Tilyard, Benjamin R., Stratford, Nicholas J., Jones, Ebony L. and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Otolith morphology of four mackerel species (Scomberomorus spp.) in Australia : Species differentiation and prediction for fisheries monitoring and assessment. Fisheries Research. 176, pp. 39-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2015.12.003
Efficient parameter estimation via Gaussian copulas for quantile regression with longitudinal data
Fu, Liya and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Efficient parameter estimation via Gaussian copulas for quantile regression with longitudinal data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis. 143, pp. 492-502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2015.07.004
Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data
Lloyd-Jones, Luke R., Nguyen, Hien D., McLachlan, Geoffrey J., Sumpton, Wayne and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data. Biometrics. 72(4), pp. 1255-1265. https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.12531
Movement and growth of the coral reef holothuroids Bohadschia argus and Thelenota ananas
Purcell, Steven W., Piddocke, Toby P., Dalton, Steven J. and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Movement and growth of the coral reef holothuroids Bohadschia argus and Thelenota ananas. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 551, pp. 201-214. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11720
Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size
Jones, A. T., Ovenden, J. R. and Wang, Y.-G.. (2016). Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size. Heredity. 117(4), pp. 217-223. https://doi.org/10.1038/hdy.2016.19