Early prediction of reading risk in fourth grade : A combined latent class analysis and classification tree approach

Journal article


Gutiérrez, Nuria, Rigobon, Valeria, Marencin, Nancy C., Edwards, Ashley A., Steacy, Laura M. and Compton, Donald L.. (2023). Early prediction of reading risk in fourth grade : A combined latent class analysis and classification tree approach. Scientific Studies of Reading. 27(1), pp. 21-38. https://doi.org/10.1080/10888438.2022.2121655
AuthorsGutiérrez, Nuria, Rigobon, Valeria, Marencin, Nancy C., Edwards, Ashley A., Steacy, Laura M. and Compton, Donald L.
Abstract

Purpose
Fourth grade typically involves shifting the instruction from learning to read to reading to learn, which can cause students to struggle. However, early reading intervention guided by assessment has demonstrated effectiveness in preventing later reading difficulties (RD). This study presents a classification and regression tree (CART) model predicting fourth-grade reading groups using first-grade measures.

Method
Students were assessed in first and fourth grade (N = 452). Fourth-grade groups were determined using latent class analysis based on word reading and reading comprehension measures with a cut-point at the 15th percentile. A CART model was trained to determine the best decision rules to classify students at risk of developing later RD and compared to a logistic regression model.

Results
Important first-grade predictors included a mix of oral language and foundational word-reading skills with final classification accuracy estimates of .90 AUC, .91 sensitivity, and .75 specificity.

Conclusion
While the CART and logistic regression models’ classification accuracy was similar, CART has the advantage of offering a more intuitive way for practitioners to determine risk. Multivariate screening can be time-consuming, but CART models offer the potential to reduce false positives and guide targeted interventions, leading to better use of school resources.

Year2023
JournalScientific Studies of Reading
Journal citation27 (1), pp. 21-38
PublisherRoutledge
ISSN1088-8438
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/10888438.2022.2121655
Scopus EID2-s2.0-85138814488
Page range21-38
FunderInstitute of Education Sciences (IES)
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), National Institutes of Health
Publisher's version
License
All rights reserved
File Access Level
Controlled
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online20 Sep 2022
Publication process dates
Deposited19 Nov 2023
Grant IDR324G060036
P20HD091013
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