Too Much of a Good Thing Might Be Bad : the Double-Edged Sword of Parental Aspirations and the Adverse Effects of Aspiration-Expectation Gaps

Conventional wisdom suggests that parents’ educational expectations (how far they expect their children to go) and aspirations (how far they want their children to go) positively impact academic outcomes and benefits from attending high-ability schools. However, here we juxtapose the following: largely positive effects of educational expectations (of parents, teachers, and students); small, mixed effects of parent aspirations; largely adverse effects of parental aspiration-expectation gaps; and negative effects of school-average achievement on expectations, aspirations, and subsequent outcomes. We used a large, nationally representative longitudinal sample (16,197 Year-10 students from 751 US high schools).

Controlling background (achievement, SES, gender, age, ethnicity, academic track, and a composite risk factor), Year 10 educational expectations of teachers and parents had consistently positive effects on the following: student expectations in Years 10 and 12, Year 10 academic self-concept, final high-school grade-point-averages, and long-term outcomes at age 26 (educational attainment, educational and occupational expectations). Effects of parent aspirations on these outcomes were predominantly small and mixed in direction. However, the aspiration-expectation gap negatively predicted all these outcomes. Contrary to our proposed Goldilocks Effect (not too much, not too little, but just right), non-linear effects of expectations and aspirations were small and largely non-significant.

Parent, teacher, student expectations, and parent aspirations were all negatively predicted by school-average achievement (a big-fish-little-pond effect). However, these adverse effects of school-average achievement were larger for parents and particularly teachers than students. Furthermore, these expectations and aspirations partly mediated the adverse impacts of school-average achievement on subsequent grade-point-average and age-26 outcomes.

© The Author(s) 2023

This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/