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Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050 : An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Nichols, Emma
; 
Steinmetz, Jaimie D.
; 
Vollset, Stein Emil
; 
Fukutaki, Kai
; 
Chalek, Julian
; 
Abd-Allah, Foad
; 
Abdoli, Amir
; 
Abualhasan, Ahmed
; 
Abu-Gharbieh, Eman
; 
Akram, Tayyaba Tayyaba
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Nichols, Emma
Steinmetz, Jaimie D.
Vollset, Stein Emil
Fukutaki, Kai
Chalek, Julian
Abd-Allah, Foad
Abdoli, Amir
Abualhasan, Ahmed
Abu-Gharbieh, Eman
Akram, Tayyaba Tayyaba
Al Hamad, Hanadi
Alahdab, Fares
Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour
Alipour, Vahid
Almustanyir, Sami
Amu, Hubert
Ansari, Iman
Arabloo, Jalal
Ashraf, Tahira
Astell-Burt, Thomas
Ayano, Getinet
Ayuso-Mateos, Jose L.
Baig, Atif Amin
Barnett, Anthony
Barrow, Amadou
Baune, Bernhard T.
Béjot, Yannick
Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M. Mequanint
Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint
Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth
Bhaskar, Sonu
Bhattacharyya, Krittika
Bijani, Ali
Biswas, Atanu
Bolla, Srinivasa Rao
Boloor, Archith
Brayne, Carol
Brenner, Hermann
Burkart, Katrin
Burns, Richard A.
Cámera, Luis Alberto
Cao, Chao
Carvalho, Felix
Castro-de-Araujo, Luis F. S.
Catalá-López, Ferrán
Cerin, Ester
Chavan, Prachi P.
Cherbuin, Nicolas
Chu, Dinh-Toi
Costa, Vera Marisa
Couto, Rosa A. S.
Dadras, Omid
Dai, Xiaochen
Dandona, Lalit
Dandona, Rakhi
De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa
Dhamnetiya, Deepak
Dias da Silva, Diana
Diaz, Daniel
Douiri, Abdel
Edvardsson, David
Ekholuenetale, Michael
El Sayed, Iman
El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I.
Eskandari, Khalil
Eskandarieh, Sharareh
Esmaeilnejad, Saman
Fares, Jawad
Faro, Andre
Farooque, Umar
Feigin, Valery L.
Feng, Xiaoqi
Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
Fernandes, Eduarda
Ferrara, Pietro
Filip, Irina
Fillit, Howard
Fischer, Florian
Gaidhane, Shilpa
Galluzzo, Lucia
Ghashghaee, Ahmad
Ghith, Nermin
Gialluisi, Alessandro
Gilani, Syed Amir
Glavan, Ionela-Roxana
Gnedovskaya, Elena V.
Golechha, Mahaveer
Gupta, Rajeev
Gupta, Veer Bala
Gupta, Vivek Kumar
Haider, Mohammad Rifat
Hall, Brian J.
Hamidi, Samer
Hanif, Asif
Hankey, Graeme J.
Haque, Shafiul
Hartono, Risky Kusuma
Hasaballah, Ahmed I.
Hasan, M. Tasdik
Hassan, Amr
Hay, Simon I.
Hayat, Khezar
Hegazy, Mohamed I.
Heidari, Golnaz
Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza
Herteliu, Claudiu
Househ, Mowafa
Hussain, Rabia
Hwang, Bing-Fang
Iacoviello, Licia
Iavicoli, Ivo
Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen
Ilic, Irena M.
Ilic, Milena D.
Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi
Iso, Hiroyasu
Iwagami, Masao
Jabbarinejad, Roxana
Jacob, Louis
Jain, Vardhmaan
Jayapal, Sathish Kumar
Jayawardena, Ranil
Jha, Ravi Prakash
Jonas, Jost B.
Joseph, Nitin
Kalani, Rizwan
Kandel, Amit
Kandel, Himal
Karch, André
Kasa, Ayele Semachew
Kassie, Gizat M.
Keshavarz, Pedram
Khan, Moien A. B.
Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli
Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer
Khubchandani, Jagdish
Kim, Min Seo
Kim, Yun Jin
Kisa, Adnan
Kisa, Sezer
Kivimäki, Mika
Koroshetz, Walter J.
Koyanagi, Ai
Kumar, G. Anil
Kumar, Manasi
Lak, Hassan Mehmood
Leonardi, Matilde
Li, Bingyu
Lim, Stephen S.
Liu, Xuefeng
Liu, Yuewei
Logroscino, Giancarlo
Lorkowski, Stefan
Lucchetti, Giancarlo
Lutzky Saute, Ricardo
Magnani, Francesca Giulia
Malik, Ahmad Azam
Massano, João
Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
Menezes, Ritesh G.
Meretoja, Atte
Mohajer, Bahram
Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah
Mohammad, Yousef
Mohammed, Arif
Mokdad, Ali H.
Mondello, Stefania
Moni, Mohammad Ali Ali
Moniruzzaman, Md
Mossie, Tilahun Belete
Nagel, Gabriele
Naveed, Muhammad
Nayak, Vinod C.
Neupane Kandel, Sandhya
Nguyen, Trang Huyen
Oancea, Bogdan
Otstavnov, Nikita
Otstavnov, Stanislav S.
Owolabi, Mayowa O.
Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra
Pashazadeh Kan, Fatemeh
Pasovic, Maja
Patel, Urvish K.
Pathak, Mona
Peres, Mario F. P.
Perianayagam, Arokiasamy
Peterson, Carrie B.
Phillips, Michael R.
Pinheiro, Marina
Piradov, Michael A.
Pond, Constance Dimity
Potashman, Michele H.
Pottoo, Faheem Hyder
Prada, Sergio I.
Radfar, Amir
Raggi, Alberto
Rahim, Fakher
Rahman, Mosiur
Ram, Pradhum
Ranasinghe, Priyanga
Rawaf, David Laith
Rawaf, Salman
Rezaei, Nima
Rezapour, Aziz
Robinson, Stephen R.
Romoli, Michele
Roshandel, Gholamreza
Sahathevan, Ramesh
Sahebkar, Amirhossein
Sahraian, Mohammad Ali
Sathian, Brijesh
Sattin, Davide
Sawhney, Monika
Saylan, Mete
Schiavolin, Silvia
Seylani, Allen
Sha, Feng
Shaikh, Masood Ali
Shaji, K. S.
Shannawaz, Mohammed
Shetty, Jeevan K.
Shigematsu, Mika
Shin, Jae Il
Shiri, Rahman
Silva, Diego Augusto Santos
Silva, João Pedro
Silva, Renata
Singh, Jasvinder A.
Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich
Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna
Smith, Amanda E.
Soshnikov, Sergey
Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth
Stein, Dan J.
Sun, Jing
Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael
Thakur, Bhaskar
Timalsina, Binod
Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto
Tran, Bach Xuan
Tsegaye, Gebiyaw Wudie
Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel
Valdez, Pascual R.
Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy
Vlassov, Vasily
Vu, Giang Thu
Vu, Linh Gia
Wang, Yuan-Pang
Wimo, Anders
Winkler, Andrea Sylvia
Yadav, Lalit
Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein
Yamagishi, Kazumasa
Yang, Lin
Yano, Yuichiro
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Yu, Chuanhua
Yunusa, Ismaeel
Zadey, Siddhesh
Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich
Zastrozhina, Anasthasia
Zhang, Zhi-Jiang
Murray, Christopher J. L.
Vos, Theo
Abstract
Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.
Keywords
Date
2022
Type
Journal article
Journal
The Lancet Public Health
Book
Volume
7
Issue
2
Page Range
e105-e125
Article Number
ACU Department
Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research
Faculty of Health Sciences
Collections
Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research
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URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14802/24910
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DOI
10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8
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Published as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
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CC BY 4.0
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Open
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© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).