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Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health : All-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Paulson, Katherine R.
Kamath, Aruna M.
Alam, Tahiya
Bienhoff, Kelly
Abady, Gdiom Gebreheat
Abbas, Jaffar
Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen
Abbastabar, Hedayat
Abd-Allah, Foad
Abd-Elsalam, Sherief M.
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Paulson, Katherine R.
Kamath, Aruna M.
Alam, Tahiya
Bienhoff, Kelly
Abady, Gdiom Gebreheat
Abbas, Jaffar
Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen
Abbastabar, Hedayat
Abd-Allah, Foad
Abd-Elsalam, Sherief M.
Abdoli, Amir
Abedi, Aidin
Abolhassani, Hassan
Abreu, Lucas Guimarães
Abu-Gharbieh, Eman
Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.
Abushouk, Abdelrahman I.
Adamu, Aishatu L.
Adebayo, Oladimeji M.
Adegbosin, Adeyinka Emmanuel
Adekanmbi, Victor
Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.
Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo
Adsuar, Jose C.
Afshari, Khashayar
Aghaali, Mohammad
Agudelo-Botero, Marcela
Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku
Ahmad, Tauseef
Ahmadi, Keivan
Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
Aji, Budi
Akalu, Yonas
Akinyemi, Oluwaseun Oladapo
Aklilu, Addis
Al-Aly, Ziyad
Alam, Khurshid
Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour
Alanzi, Turki M.
Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth
Al-Eyadhy, Ayman
Ali, Tilahun
Alicandro, Gianfranco
Alif, Sheikh Mohammad
Alipour, Vahid
Alizade, Hesam
Aljunid, Syed Mohamed
Almasi-Hashiani, Amir
Almasri, Nihad A.
Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M.
Alonso, Jordi
Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M.
Altirkawi, Khalid A.
Alumran, Arwa Khalid
Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J.
Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena
Amini, Saeed
Amini-Rarani, Mostafa
Amit, Arianna Maever L.
Amugsi, Dickson A.
Ancuceanu, Robert
Anderlini, Deanna
Andrei, Catalina Liliana
Ansari, Fereshteh
Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza
Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.
Antriyandarti, Ernoiz
Anvari, Davood
Anwer, Razique
Aqeel, Muhammad
Arabloo, Jalal
Arab-Zozani, Morteza
Aripov, Timur
Ärnlöv, Johan
Artanti, Kurnia Dwi
Arzani, Afsaneh
Asaad, Malke
Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran
Asadi-Pooya, Ali A.
Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad
Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin
Athari, Seyyede Masoume
Atnafu, Desta Debalkie
Atreya, Alok
Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan
Ausloos, Marcel
Awan, Asma Tahir
Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina
Ayano, Getinet
Ayanore, Martin Amogre
Aynalem, Yared Asmare
Azari, Samad
Azarian, Ghasem
Azene, Zelalem Nigussie
B, Darshan B.
Babaee, Ebrahim
Badiye, Ashish D.
Baig, Atif Amin
Banach, Maciej
Banik, Palash Chandra
Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn
Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat
Bassat, Quique
Basu, Sanjay
Baune, Bernhard T.
Bayati, Mohsen
Bedi, Neeraj
Beghi, Ettore
Beghi, Massimiliano
Bell, Michelle L.
Bendak, Salaheddine
Bennett, Derrick A.
Bensenor, Isabela M.
Berhe, Kidanemaryam
Berman, Adam E.
Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint
Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth
Bhandari, Dinesh
Bhardwaj, Nikha
Bhardwaj, Pankaj
Bhattacharyya, Krittika
Bhattarai, Suraj
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
Bikbov, Boris
Biondi, Antonio
Birihane, Binyam Minuye
Biswas, Raaj Kishore
Bohlouli, Somayeh
Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi
Breusov, Alexey V.
Brunoni, Andre R.
Burkart, Katrin
Burugina Nagaraja, Sharath
Busse, Reinhard
Butt, Zahid A.
Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano
Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero
Camargos, Paulo
Cámera, Luis Alberto
Cárdenas, Rosario
Carreras, Giulia
Carrero, Juan J.
Carvalho, Felix
Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio
Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.
Castelpietra, Giulio
Cerin, Ester
Chang, Jung-Chen
Chanie, Wagaye Fentahun
Charan, Jaykaran
Chatterjee, Souranshu
Chattu, Soosanna Kumary
Chattu, Vijay Kumar
Chaturvedi, Sarika
Chen, Simiao
Cho, Daniel Youngwhan
Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine
Chu, Dinh-Toi
Ciobanu, Liliana G.
Cirillo, Massimo
Conde, Joao
Costa, Vera Marisa
Couto, Rosa A. S.
Dachew, Berihun Assefa
Dahlawi, Saad M. A.
Dai, Hancheng
Dai, Xiaochen
Dandona, Lalit
Dandona, Rakhi
Daneshpajouhnejad, Parnaz
Darmstadt, Gary L.
Das, Jai K.
Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto
Davis, Adrian C.
Davletov, Kairat
De la Hoz, Fernando Pio
De Leo, Diego
Deeba, Farah
Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar
Dervenis, Nikolaos
Desalew, Assefa
Deuba, Keshab
Dey, Sagnik
Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda
Dhingra, Sameer
Dhungana, Govinda Prasad
Dias da Silva, Diana
Diaz, Daniel
Dorostkar, Fariba
Doshmangir, Leila
Dubljanin, Eleonora
Duraes, Andre Rodrigues
Eagan, Arielle Wilder
Edinur, Hisham Atan
Efendi, Ferry
Eftekharzadeh, Sahar
El Sayed, Iman
El Tantawi, Maha
Elbarazi, Iffat
Elgendy, Islam Y.
El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I.
Emami, Amir
Enany, Shymaa
Eyawo, Oghenowede
Ezzikouri, Sayeh
Faris, Pawan Sirwan
Farzadfar, Farshad
Fattahi, Nazir
Fauk, Nelsensius Klau
Fazlzadeh, Mehdi
Feigin, Valery L.
Ferede, Tomas Y.
Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad
Fernandes, Eduarda
Ferrara, Pietro
Filip, Irina
Fischer, Florian
Fisher, James L.
Foigt, Nataliya A.
Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin
Foroutan, Masoud
Franklin, Richard Charles
Freitas, Marisa
Friedman, Sara D.
Fukumoto, Takeshi
Gad, Mohamed M.
Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji
Gaidhane, Shilpa
Gaihre, Santosh
Gallus, Silvano
Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.
Garcia-Gordillo, M. A.
Gardner, William M.
Gaspar Fonseca, Mariana
Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork
Getacher, Lemma
Ghashghaee, Ahmad
Gholamian, Asadollah
Gilani, Syed Amir
Gill, Tiffany K.
Giussani, Giorgia
Gnedovskaya, Elena V.
Godinho, Myron Anthony
Goel, Amit
Golechha, Mahaveer
Gona, Philimon N.
Gopalani, Sameer Vali
Goudarzi, Houman
Grivna, Michal
Gugnani, Harish Chander
Guido, Davide
Guimarães, Rafael Alves
Gupta, Rajat Das
Gupta, Rajeev
Hafezi-Nejad, Nima
Haider, Mohammad Rifat
Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin
Hamidi, Samer
Hanif, Asif
Hankey, Graeme J.
Hargono, Arief
Hasaballah, Ahmed I.
Hasan, Md Mehedi
Hasan, Syed Shahzad
Hassan, Amr
Hassanipour, Soheil
Hassankhani, Hadi
Havmoeller, Rasmus J.
Hayat, Khezar
Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza
Henry, Nathaniel J.
Herteliu, Claudiu
Hole, Michael K.
Holla, Ramesh
Hossain, Naznin
Hosseini, Mostafa
Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi
Hostiuc, Mihaela
Hostiuc, Sorin
Househ, Mowafa
Huang, Junjie
Humayun, Ayesha
Hwang, Bing-Fang
Iavicoli, Ivo
Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel
Ikuta, Kevin S.
Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen
Ilic, Irena M.
Ilic, Milena D.
Inamdar, Sumant
Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja
Iqbal, Khalid
Iqbal, Usman
Islam, M. Mofizul
Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful
Iso, Hiroyasu
Iwagami, Masao
Iwu, Chidozie C. D.
Jaafari, Jalil
Jacobsen, Kathryn H.
Jagnoor, Jagnoor
Jain, Vardhmaan
Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar
Javaheri, Tahereh
Javanmardi, Fatemeh
Jayaram, Shubha
Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra
Jenabi, Ensiyeh
Jha, Ravi Prakash
Ji, John S.
John, Oommen
Jonas, Jost B.
Joo, Tamas
Joseph, Nitin
Joukar, Farahnaz
Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy
Jürisson, Mikk
Kabir, Ali
Kabir, Zubair
Kalankesh, Leila R.
Kamyari, Naser
Kanchan, Tanuj
Kapoor, Neeti
Karami Matin, Behzad
Karch, André
Karimi, Salah Eddin
Kassahun, Getinet
Kayode, Gbenga A.
Kazemi Karyani, Ali
Kemmer, Laura
Khalid, Nauman
Khalilov, Rovshan
Khammarnia, Mohammad
Khan, Ejaz Ahmad
Khan, Gulfaraz
Khan, Maseer
Khan, Md Nuruzzaman
Khang, Young-Ho
Khatab, Khaled
Khater, Amir M.
Khater, Mona M.
Khayamzadeh, Maryam
Khosravi, Ardeshir
Kim, Daniel
Kim, Young-Eun
Kim, Yun Jin
Kimokoti, Ruth W.
Kisa, Adnan
Kisa, Sezer
Kissoon, Niranjan
Kopec, Jacek A.
Kosen, Soewarta
Koul, Parvaiz A.
Koulmane Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi
Koyanagi, Ai
Krishan, Kewal
Krishnamoorthy, Vijay
Kuate Defo, Barthelemy
Kucuk Bicer, Burcu
Kulkarni, Vaman
Kumar, G. Anil
Kumar, Manasi
Kumar, Nithin
Kurmi, Om P.
Kusuma, Dian
La Vecchia, Carlo
Lacey, Ben
Lalloo, Ratilal
Lami, Faris Hasan
Landires, Iván
Larsson, Anders O.
Lasrado, Savita
Lassi, Zohra S.
Lauriola, Paolo
Lee, Paul H.
Lee, Shaun Wen Huey
Lee, Yo Han
Leigh, James
Leonardi, Matilde
Lewycka, Sonia
Li, Bingyu
Li, Shanshan
Liang, Juan
Lim, Lee-Ling
Limenih, Miteku Andualem
Lin, Ro-Ting
Liu, Xuefeng
Lodha, Rakesh
Lopez, Alan D.
Lozano, Rafael
Lugo, Alessandra
Lunevicius, Raimundas
Mackay, Mark T.
Madhava Kunjathur, Shilpashree
Magnani, Francesca Giulia
Mahadeshwara Prasad, D. R.
Maheri, Mina
Mahmoudi, Morteza
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Maled, Venkatesh
Maleki, Afshin
Maleki, Shokofeh
Malekzadeh, Reza
Malik, Ahmad Azam
Malta, Deborah Carvalho
Mamun, Abdullah A.
Mansouri, Borhan
Mansournia, Mohammad Ali
Martinez, Gabriel
Martini, Santi
Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio
Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra
Maulik, Pallab K.
McAlinden, Colm
McGrath, John J.
Medina-Solís, Carlo Eduardo
Mehrabi Nasab, Entezar
Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola
Memish, Ziad A.
Mendoza, Walter
Menezes, Ritesh G.
Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku
Mensah, George A.
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Mersha, Abera M.
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Miller, Ted R.
Mini, G. K.
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Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.
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Pazoki Toroudi, Hamidreza
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Pereira, Jeevan
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Pirsaheb, Meghdad
Platts-Mills, James A.
Pokhrel, Khem Narayan
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Ronfani, Luca
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Saddik, Basema
Sadeghi, Ehsan
Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar
Sagar, Rajesh
Sahebkar, Amirhossein
Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza
Salehi, Sana
Salem, Marwa Rashad
Salimzadeh, Hamideh
Salomon, Joshua A.
Samodra, Yoseph Leonardo
Samy, Abdallah M.
Sanabria, Juan
Santric-Milicevic, Milena M.
Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer
Sarker, Abdur Razzaque
Sarrafzadegan, Nizal
Sarveazad, Arash
Sathian, Brijesh
Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu
Sattin, Davide
Saxena, Sonia
Saya, Ganesh Kumar
Saylan, Mete
Schiavolin, Silvia
Schlaich, Markus P.
Schwebel, David C.
Schwendicke, Falk
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Sepanlou, Sadaf G.
Serván-Mori, Edson
Sha, Feng
Shafaat, Omid
Shahabi, Saeed
Shahbaz, Mohammad
Shaheen, Amira A.
Shahid, Izza
Shaikh, Masood Ali
Shakiba, Saeed
Shalash, Ali S.
Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran
Shannawaz, Mohammed
Sharafi, Kiomars
Sheikh, Aziz
Sheikhbahaei, Sara
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Shigematsu, Mika
Shin, Jae Il
Shiri, Rahman
Shiue, Ivy
Shuval, Kerem
Siddiqi, Tariq Jamal
Sidemo, Negussie Boti
Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora
Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig
Silva, João Pedro
Silverberg, Jonathan I. S.
Simonetti, Biagio
Singh, Balbir Bagicha
Singh, Jasvinder A.
Singhal, Deepika
Sinha, Dhirendra Narain
Skiadaresi, Eirini
Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich
Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna
Sleet, David A.
Sobaih, Badr Hasan
Sobhiyeh, Mohammad Reza
Soltani, Shahin
Soriano, Joan B.
Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth
Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.
Steiropoulos, Paschalis
Stokes, Mark A.
Stortecky, Stefan
Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale
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Swope, Carolyn B.
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Tesfay, Fisaha Haile
Tessema, Gizachew Assefa
Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse
Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman
Thapar, Rekha
Tolani, Musliu Adetola
Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto
Traini, Eugenio
Tran, Bach Xuan
Tripathy, Jaya Prasad
Tsapparellas, Giorgos
Tsatsakis, Aristidis
Tudor Car, Lorainne
Uddin, Riaz
Ullah, Anayat
Umeokonkwo, Chukwuma David
Unim, Brigid
Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran
Upadhyay, Era
Usman, Muhammad Shariq
Vacante, Marco
Vaezi, Maryam
Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel
Valdez, Pascual R.
Vasankari, Tommi Juhani
Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy
Verma, Madhur
Violante, Francesco S.
Vlassov, Vasily
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Wado, Yohannes Dibaba
Waheed, Yasir
Wamai, Richard G.
Wang, Yanping
Wang, Yanzhong
Wang, Yuan-Pang
Ward, Paul
Werdecker, Andrea
Westerman, Ronny
Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana
Wilner, Lauren B.
Wiysonge, Charles Shey
Wu, Ai-Min
Wu, Chenkai
Xie, Yang
Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein
Yamagishi, Kazumasa
Yandrapalli, Srikanth
Yaya, Sanni
Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid
Yip, Paul
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Yoon, Seok-Jun
Younis, Mustafa Z.
Yousefi, Zabihollah
Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh
Yu, Chuanhua
Yusuf, Sifat Shahana
Zaidi, Syed Saoud
Zaman, Sojib Bin
Zamani, Mohammad
Zamanian, Maryam
Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich
Zastrozhina, Anasthasia
Zhang, Yunquan
Zhang, Zhi-Jiang
Zhao, Xiu-Ju George
Ziapour, Arash
Hay, Simon I.
Murray, Christopher J. L.
Wang, Haidong
Kassebaum, Nicholas J.
Abstract
Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35–2·58; 37% [95% UI 32–43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.
Keywords
Date
2021
Type
Journal article
Journal
The Lancet
Book
Volume
398
Issue
10303
Page Range
870-905
Article Number
ACU Department
Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research
Faculty of Health Sciences
Relation URI
Source URL
Event URL
Open Access Status
Published as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
License
CC BY 4.0
File Access
Open
Notes