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Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
Atkinson, Jo-An Knowles, Dylan Wiggers, John H. Livingston, Michael Room, Robin Prodan, Ante McDonnell, Geoff O'Donnell, Eloise Jones, Sandra Haber, Paul S.
Atkinson, Jo-An
Knowles, Dylan
Wiggers, John H.
Livingston, Michael
Room, Robin
Prodan, Ante
McDonnell, Geoff
O'Donnell, Eloise
Jones, Sandra
Haber, Paul S.
Abstract
Objectives: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world.
Methods: A consortium of Australia’s leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined.
Results: A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect.
Conclusions: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.
Keywords
agent-based modelling, alcohol-related harm, prevention policy, evidence synthesis
Date
2018
Type
Journal article
Journal
International Journal of Public Health
Book
Volume
63
Issue
4
Page Range
537-546
Article Number
ACU Department
ACU Engagement
Collections
Relation URI
Source URL
Event URL
Open Access Status
Open access
License
CC BY 4.0
File Access
Open