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Scenarios for Australia in 2050: A synthesis and proposed survey
Costanza, Robert Kubiszewski, Ida Cork, Steve Atkins, Paul W. B. Bean, Alexandra Diamond, Alexis Grigg, Nicola Korb, Emily Logg-Scarvell, Jasmin Navis, Rajkumari
Costanza, Robert
Kubiszewski, Ida
Cork, Steve
Atkins, Paul W. B.
Bean, Alexandra
Diamond, Alexis
Grigg, Nicola
Korb, Emily
Logg-Scarvell, Jasmin
Navis, Rajkumari
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Abstract
We reviewed a broad range of scenarios of the future developed for Australia and globally and developed a synthesis for Australia. Our four synthesis scenarios were structured around two axes: (1) individual vs. community orientation and (2) whether biophysical limits are binding on continued GDP growth or could be overcome with technology. While global scenarios have explored transformational or collapse futures, very few scenarios at the national scale for Australia have done so. Australian scenarios have also not articulated positive futures that are very different from the status quo. We have addressed this gap. We describe each scenario in tabular and summary form. We also developed a public opinion survey to be used to involve Australians in ranking the scenarios and thinking about the future they want. This extension of scenario planning is novel and we hope to employ it to improve thinking, discussion, and policy about Australia's future.
Keywords
scenario planning, archetypes, public opinion survey
Date
2015
Type
Journal article
Journal
Journal of Futures Studies
Book
Volume
19
Issue
3
Page Range
49-76
Article Number
ACU Department
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