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Probability judgements about indicative conditionals : An erotetic theory
Carter, Sam
Carter, Sam
Author
Abstract
Research into the cognition of conditionals has predominantly focused on conditional reasoning, producing a range of theories which explain associated phenomena with considerable success. However, such theories have been less successful in accommodating experimental data concerning how agents assess the probability of indicative conditionals. Since an acceptable account of conditional reasoning should be compatible with evidence regarding how we evaluate conditionals' likelihoods, this constitutes a failing of such theories. Section 1 introduces the most dominant established approach to conditional reasoning: mental models theory. Surveying a range of experimental results, I show that mental models theory (along with competing theories) is incapable of fully accounting for findings regarding judgements about conditionals' probabilities. Section 2 introduces an alternative account of deductive reasoning, the erotetic theory, recently proposed by Koralus and Mascarenhas (2013). Section 3 argues that, given a natural extension, this theory is able to explain the otherwise unaccounted for data.
Keywords
probabilistic reasoning, indicative conditionals, erotetic theory of reasoning, mental models
Date
2016
Type
Journal article
Journal
Logic Journal of the IGPL
Book
Volume
24
Issue
4
Page Range
600-611
Article Number
ACU Department
Dianoia Institute of Philosophy
Faculty of Theology and Philosophy
Faculty of Theology and Philosophy
Relation URI
Source URL
Event URL
Open Access Status
License
All rights reserved
File Access
Controlled