On the viability of the No Alternatives Argument

Journal article


Vasudev Menon, Tushar. (2019). On the viability of the No Alternatives Argument. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science. 76, pp. 69-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2018.10.005
AuthorsVasudev Menon, Tushar
Abstract

If we cannot directly empirically test the claims of a particular scientific theory directly, then it would be nice to have some other criteria with which to assess its viability. In his 2013 book, String Theory and the Scientific Method, Richard Dawid aims to develop such criteria, with an eye to vindicating research programmess in disciplines where direct empirical data is scant or non-existent. In an accompanying paper, Dawid, Hartmann and Sprenger formalise Dawid's so-called ‘No Alternatives Argument’ (NAA) using a generalised Bayesian framework, as a first step towards formalising Dawid's entire research programme (which itself relies on two further arguments). In this paper, I argue that the formalisation of the NAA cannot play the central role in Dawid's programme as intended. This is based on the observation that not all confirmation is non-negligible confirmation. For Dawid's programme to be useful, it must demonstrate the viability not just of non-empirical theory confirmation, but of non-negligible non-empirical theory confirmation. I argue that Dawid et al.‘s appeal to Bayesian confirmation theory to formalise his NAA cannot guarantee non-negligible confirmation. As a result, I conclude that if Dawid's overall project is to succeed, it must do so without the NAA formalised in this way.

Keywordstheory; No Alternatives Argument; theory confirmation
Year01 Jan 2019
JournalStudies in History and Philosophy of Science
Journal citation76, pp. 69-75
PublisherElsevier Ltd. (UK)
ISSN0039-3681
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2018.10.005
Web address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0039368118301109
Open accessPublished as non-open access
Research or scholarlyResearch
Page range69-75
Publisher's version
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All rights reserved
File Access Level
Controlled
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Print23 Sep 2019
Publication process dates
Accepted29 Oct 2018
Deposited26 Aug 2024
Additional information

© 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Place of publicationUnited Kingdom
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