Scenarios for Australia in 2050: A synthesis and proposed survey

Journal article


Costanza, Robert, Kubiszewski, Ida, Cork, Steve, Atkins, Paul W. B., Bean, Alexandra, Diamond, Alexis, Grigg, Nicola, Korb, Emily, Logg-Scarvell, Jasmin, Navis, Rajkumari and Patrick, Kimberley. (2015) Scenarios for Australia in 2050: A synthesis and proposed survey. Journal of Futures Studies. 19(3), pp. 49 - 76.
AuthorsCostanza, Robert, Kubiszewski, Ida, Cork, Steve, Atkins, Paul W. B., Bean, Alexandra, Diamond, Alexis, Grigg, Nicola, Korb, Emily, Logg-Scarvell, Jasmin, Navis, Rajkumari and Patrick, Kimberley
Abstract

We reviewed a broad range of scenarios of the future developed for Australia and globally and developed a synthesis for Australia. Our four synthesis scenarios were structured around two axes: (1) individual vs. community orientation and (2) whether biophysical limits are binding on continued GDP growth or could be overcome with technology. While global scenarios have explored transformational or collapse futures, very few scenarios at the national scale for Australia have done so. Australian scenarios have also not articulated positive futures that are very different from the status quo. We have addressed this gap. We describe each scenario in tabular and summary form. We also developed a public opinion survey to be used to involve Australians in ranking the scenarios and thinking about the future they want. This extension of scenario planning is novel and we hope to employ it to improve thinking, discussion, and policy about Australia's future.

Keywordsscenario planning; archetypes; public opinion survey
Year2015
JournalJournal of Futures Studies
Journal citation19 (3), pp. 49 - 76
Scopus EID2-s2.0-84930239002
Page range49 - 76
Research GroupInstitute for Positive Psychology and Education
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Controlled
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https://acuresearchbank.acu.edu.au/item/8v4yq/scenarios-for-australia-in-2050-a-synthesis-and-proposed-survey

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