Probability judgements about indicative conditionals : An erotetic theory

Journal article

Carter, Sam. (2016). Probability judgements about indicative conditionals : An erotetic theory. Logic Journal of the IGPL. 24(4), pp. 600-611.
AuthorsCarter, Sam

Research into the cognition of conditionals has predominantly focused on conditional reasoning, producing a range of theories which explain associated phenomena with considerable success. However, such theories have been less successful in accommodating experimental data concerning how agents assess the probability of indicative conditionals. Since an acceptable account of conditional reasoning should be compatible with evidence regarding how we evaluate conditionals' likelihoods, this constitutes a failing of such theories. Section 1 introduces the most dominant established approach to conditional reasoning: mental models theory. Surveying a range of experimental results, I show that mental models theory (along with competing theories) is incapable of fully accounting for findings regarding judgements about conditionals' probabilities. Section 2 introduces an alternative account of deductive reasoning, the erotetic theory, recently proposed by Koralus and Mascarenhas (2013). Section 3 argues that, given a natural extension, this theory is able to explain the otherwise unaccounted for data.

Keywordsprobabilistic reasoning; indicative conditionals; erotetic theory of reasoning; mental models
JournalLogic Journal of the IGPL
Journal citation24 (4), pp. 600-611
PublisherOxford University Press
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Scopus EID2-s2.0-85019838280
Research or scholarlyResearch
Page range600-611
Publisher's version
All rights reserved
File Access Level
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online18 May 2016
Publication process dates
Deposited16 Dec 2021
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