Epistemic probabilities are degrees of support, not degrees of (rational) belief
Journal article
Climenhaga, Nevin. (2023). Epistemic probabilities are degrees of support, not degrees of (rational) belief. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research. 108(1), pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1111/phpr.12947
Authors | Climenhaga, Nevin |
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Abstract | I argue that when we use ‘probability’ language in epistemic contexts—e.g., when we ask how probable some hypothesis is, given the evidence available to us—we are talking about degrees of support, rather than degrees of belief. The epistemic probability of A given B is the mind-independent degree to which B supports A, not the degree to which someone with B as their evidence believes A, or the degree to which someone would or should believe A if they had B as their evidence. My central argument is that the degree-of-support interpretation lets us better model good reasoning in certain cases involving old evidence. Degree-of-belief interpretations make the wrong predictions not only about whether old evidence confirms new hypotheses, but about the values of the probabilities that enter into Bayes' Theorem when we calculate the probability of hypotheses conditional on old evidence and new background information. |
Keywords | probability; degrees of support |
Year | 2023 |
Journal | Philosophy and Phenomenological Research |
Journal citation | 108 (1), pp. 1-24 |
Publisher | Wiley Periodicals LLC |
ISSN | 0031-8205 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1111/phpr.12947 |
Scopus EID | 2-s2.0-85147337428 |
Web address (URL) | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/phpr.12947 |
Open access | Published as ‘gold’ (paid) open access |
Research or scholarly | Research |
Page range | 1-24 |
Publisher's version | License File Access Level Open |
Output status | Published |
Publication dates | |
Online | 30 Jan 2023 |
Publication process dates | |
Deposited | 07 Nov 2023 |
Additional information | © 2023 The Authors. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Philosophy and Phenonmenological Research Inc. |
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. |
https://acuresearchbank.acu.edu.au/item/8zy6w/epistemic-probabilities-are-degrees-of-support-not-degrees-of-rational-belief
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Publisher's version
OA_Climenhaga_2023_Epistemic_probabilities_are_degrees_of_support.pdf | |
License: CC BY-NC 4.0 | |
File access level: Open |
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