A physics-informed statistical learning framework for forecasting local suspended sediment concentrations in marine environment

Journal article

Zhang, Shaotong, Wu, Ryan, Wang, You-Gan, Jeng, Dong-Sheng and Li, Guangxue. (2022). A physics-informed statistical learning framework for forecasting local suspended sediment concentrations in marine environment. Water Research. 218, pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118518
AuthorsZhang, Shaotong, Wu, Ryan, Wang, You-Gan, Jeng, Dong-Sheng and Li, Guangxue
Abstract

An in-situ monitoring of water quality (suspended sediment concentration, SSC) and concurrent hydrodynamics was conducted in the subaqueous Yellow River Delta in China. Empirical mode decomposition and spectral analysis on the SSC time series reveal the different periodicities of each physical mechanism that contribute to the SSC variations. Based on this physical understanding, the decomposed SSC time series were trained separately with a newly-proposed augmented lncosh ridge regression, in which (1) a lncosh function was incorporated in traditional ridge regression for handling outliers in original data, and (2) the temporal auto-correlation in the decomposed SSC series was used for augmented regression. Finally, the trained sub-series were added up as the final prediction. The advantages of this decomposition-ensemble framework is that it depends on SSC only, superior to the normal process-based models which need the concurrent hydrodynamics for estimating bed shear stress. This will not only reduce the measurement uncertainties of the input when training the data-driven model, but also save the prediction cost as no other parameters than SSC need to be measured and input for running the model. The framework realized 6-hour-ahead high-accuracy forecasting with mean relative errors of 5.80-9.44% in the present case study. The proposed framework can be extended to forecast any signal that is superposed by components with various timescales (periodicities) which is common in nature.

KeywordsAugmented lncosh ridge regression; Marine ranching; Outlier handling; Temporal auto-correlation; The Yellow River Delta; Water quality
Year01 Jan 2022
JournalWater Research
Journal citation218, pp. 1-16
PublisherElsevier Ltd.
ISSN0043-1354
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118518
PubMed ID35526355
Scopus EID2-s2.0-85129552167
Web address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0043135422004638
Open accessPublished as non-open access
Research or scholarlyResearch
Page range1-16
Publisher's version
License
All rights reserved
File Access Level
Controlled
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online27 Apr 2022
Publication process dates
Accepted21 Apr 2022
Deposited11 Jan 2023
ARC Funded ResearchThis output has been funded, wholly or partially, under the Australian Research Council Act 2001
Grant IDDP160104292
ZR2019BD009
41807229
2018M640656
201801026
IC190100020
Additional information

© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

This work was supported in part by Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project ( DP160104292 ).

This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (grant number ZR2019BD009 ), the Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 41807229 ), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (grant number 2018M640656 ), Shandong Provincial Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents (grantee Shaotong Zhang), and the Funding for Study Abroad Program by the Government of Shandong Province (grant number 201801026 ). This work was supported in part by Industrial Transformation Training Centres (IC190100020).

Place of publicationUnited Kingdom
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Xu, Jing, Jin, Guangqiu, Tang, Hongwu, Mo, Yuming, Wang, You-Gan and Li, Ling. (2019). Response of water quality to land use and sewage outfalls in different seasons. Science of the Total Environment. 696, p. Article 134014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134014
A new hybrid model to predict the electrical load in five states of Australia
Wu, Jinran, Cui, Zhesen, Chen, Yanyan, Kong, Demeng and Wang, You-Gan. (2019). A new hybrid model to predict the electrical load in five states of Australia. Energy. 166, pp. 598-609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.076
Sweepstakes reproductive success is absent in a New Zealand snapper (Chrysophrus auratus) population protected from fishing despite “tiny” Ne/N ratios elsewhere
Jones, Andy, Lavery, Shane D., Le Port, Agnès, Wang, You-Gan, Blower, Dean and Ovenden, Jennifer. (2019). Sweepstakes reproductive success is absent in a New Zealand snapper (Chrysophrus auratus) population protected from fishing despite “tiny” Ne/N ratios elsewhere. Molecular Ecology. 28(12), pp. 2986-2995. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.15130
A review of the Behrens–Fisher problem and some of its analogs : Does the same size fit all?
Paul, Sudhir, Wang, You-Gan and Ullah, Insha. (2019). A review of the Behrens–Fisher problem and some of its analogs : Does the same size fit all? Revstat Statistical Journal. 17(4), p. 563–597.
Incorporating social objectives in evaluating sustainable fisheries harvest strategy
Wu, Jiafeng, Wang, Na, Hu, Zhi-Hua, Hong, Zhenjie and Wang, You-Gan. (2019). Incorporating social objectives in evaluating sustainable fisheries harvest strategy. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 24(4), pp. 381-386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-019-9651-9
Significance tests for analyzing gene expression data with small sample sizes
Ullah, Insha, Paul, Sudhir, Hong, Zhenjie and Wang, You-Gan. (2019). Significance tests for analyzing gene expression data with small sample sizes. Bioinformatics. 35(20), pp. 3996-4003. https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btz189
Robust Estimation Using Modified Huber’s Functions With New Tails
Jiang, Yunlu, Wang, You-Gan, Fu, Liya and Wang, Xueqin. (2019). Robust Estimation Using Modified Huber’s Functions With New Tails. Technometrics. 61(1), pp. 111-122. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2018.1470037
Variable selection in rank regression for analyzing longitudinal data
Fu, Liya and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Variable selection in rank regression for analyzing longitudinal data. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. 27(8), pp. 2447-2458. https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280216681347
Assessing temporal variations of Ammonia Nitrogen concentrations and loads in the Huaihe River Basin in relation to policies on pollution source control
Xu, Jing, Jin, Guangqiu, Tang, Hongwu, Zhang, Pei, Wang, Shen, Wang, You-Gan and Li, Ling. (2018). Assessing temporal variations of Ammonia Nitrogen concentrations and loads in the Huaihe River Basin in relation to policies on pollution source control. Science of the Total Environment. 642, pp. 1386-1395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.395
Genomic prediction of breeding values using a subset of SNPs identified by three machine learning methods
Li, Bo, Zhang, Nanxi, Wang, You-Gan, George, Andrew W., Reverter, Antonio and Li, Yutao. (2018). Genomic prediction of breeding values using a subset of SNPs identified by three machine learning methods. Frontiers in Genetics. 9, p. Article 237. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2018.00237
Dividend growth and equity premium predictability
Zhu, Min, Chen, Rui, Du, Ke and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Dividend growth and equity premium predictability. International Review of Economics and Finance. 56, pp. 125-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.020
Robust Regression with Data-Dependent Regularization Parameters and Autoregressive Temporal Correlations
Wang, Na, Wang, You-Gan, Hu, Shuwen, Hu, Zhi-Hua, Xu, Jing, Tang, Hongwu and Jin, Guangqiu. (2018). Robust Regression with Data-Dependent Regularization Parameters and Autoregressive Temporal Correlations. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 23(6), pp. 779-786. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-018-9605-7
Analysis of spatial data with a nested correlation structure
Adegboye, Oyelola, Leung, Denis and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Analysis of spatial data with a nested correlation structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics. 67(2), pp. 329-354. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12230
Working correlation structure selection in generalized estimating equations
Fu, Liya, Hao, Yangyang and Wang, You-Gan. (2018). Working correlation structure selection in generalized estimating equations. Computational Statistics. 33(2), pp. 983-996. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-018-0800-4
Selection of working correlation structure in generalized estimating equations
Wang, You-Gan and Fu, Liya. (2017). Selection of working correlation structure in generalized estimating equations. Statistics in Medicine. 36(14), pp. 2206-2219. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7262
Blockwise AICc for model selection in generalized linear models
Song, Guofeng, Dong, Xiaogang, Wu, Jiafeng and Wang, You-Gan. (2017). Blockwise AICc for model selection in generalized linear models. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 22(6), pp. 523-533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-017-9552-8
A comment on Koh’s “The optimal design of fallible organizations : Invariance of optimal decision threshold and uniqueness of hierarchy and polyarchy structures”
Zhu, Min, Liu, Chang and Wang, You-Gan. (2017). A comment on Koh’s “The optimal design of fallible organizations : Invariance of optimal decision threshold and uniqueness of hierarchy and polyarchy structures”. Social Choice and Welfare. 48(2), pp. 385-392. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00355-016-1009-5
The Buckley–James estimator and induced smoothing
Wang, You-Gan, Zhao, Yudong and Fu, Liya. (2016). The Buckley–James estimator and induced smoothing. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics. 58(2), pp. 211-225. https://doi.org/10.1111/anzs.12155
Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data
Kienzle, Marco, Sterling, David, Zhou, Shijie and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data. Ecological Modelling. 322, pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.11.008
Otolith morphology of four mackerel species (Scomberomorus spp.) in Australia : Species differentiation and prediction for fisheries monitoring and assessment
Zischke, Mitchell T., Litherland, Lenore, Tilyard, Benjamin R., Stratford, Nicholas J., Jones, Ebony L. and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Otolith morphology of four mackerel species (Scomberomorus spp.) in Australia : Species differentiation and prediction for fisheries monitoring and assessment. Fisheries Research. 176, pp. 39-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2015.12.003
Efficient parameter estimation via Gaussian copulas for quantile regression with longitudinal data
Fu, Liya and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Efficient parameter estimation via Gaussian copulas for quantile regression with longitudinal data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis. 143, pp. 492-502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2015.07.004
Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data
Lloyd-Jones, Luke R., Nguyen, Hien D., McLachlan, Geoffrey J., Sumpton, Wayne and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Mixture of time-dependent growth models with an application to blue swimmer crab length-frequency data. Biometrics. 72(4), pp. 1255-1265. https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.12531
Movement and growth of the coral reef holothuroids Bohadschia argus and Thelenota ananas
Purcell, Steven W., Piddocke, Toby P., Dalton, Steven J. and Wang, You-Gan. (2016). Movement and growth of the coral reef holothuroids Bohadschia argus and Thelenota ananas. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 551, pp. 201-214. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11720
Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size
Jones, A. T., Ovenden, J. R. and Wang, Y.-G.. (2016). Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size. Heredity. 117(4), pp. 217-223. https://doi.org/10.1038/hdy.2016.19