The significance of recent fracture location for imminent risk of hip and vertebral fractures—a nationwide cohort study on older adults in Sweden

Summary
The role of recent fracture site in predicting the most detrimental subsequent fractures, hip and vertebral, is unclear. This study found that most recent fracture sites were associated with an increased risk of both hip and vertebral fracture, a finding that may impact the design of secondary prevention programs.

Background
Hip and vertebral fractures are the most serious in terms of associated morbidity, mortality, and societal costs. There is limited evidence as to which fracture types are associated with the highest risk for subsequent hip and vertebral fractures. This study aims to explore the dependency of imminent hip and vertebral fracture risk on the site of the recent index fracture.

Methods
Conducted as a nationwide retrospective cohort study, we utilized Swedish national registers to assess the risk of hip and vertebral fractures based on the site of the recent (≤ 2 years) index fracture and an old (> 2 years) prevalent fracture. This risk was compared to that observed in individuals without any prevalent fractures. This study encompassed all Swedes aged 50 years and older between 2007 and 2010. Patients with a recent fracture were categorized into specific groups based on the type of their previous fracture and were followed until December 2017, with censoring for death and migration. The study assessed the risk of hip and vertebral fractures during the follow-up period.

Results
The study included a total of 3,423,320 individuals, comprising 145,780 with a recent fracture, 293,051 with an old fracture, and 2,984,489 without a previous fracture. The median follow-up times for the three groups were 7.6 years (IQR 4.0–9.1), 7.9 years (5.8–9.2), and 8.5 years (7.4–9.7), respectively. Patients with a recent fracture at almost all sites exhibited a significantly increased risk of hip fracture and an elevated risk of vertebral fracture compared to controls.

Patients with recent fractures had an increased risk of subsequent hip and vertebral fractures, regardless of the index fracture site. These results strengthen the notion that all patients with a recent fracture, regardless of fracture site, should be included in secondary prevention programs, to improve the prevention of the clinically most serious fractures.

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